How AI's Economic Weight Impacts Fintech's Future

Artificial intelligence has transitioned from a useful tool to a primary driver of economic growth. 

Investment in data centres and computing infrastructure now constitutes a large portion of GDP in developed nations.

In the US, this economic reliance has grown so much that the potential consequences of a boom ending are a serious consideration for economists and financial leaders.

Volatility in AI stocks has highlighted how interconnected the US economy has become to AI-related investment and wealth.

The numbers show that business investment in AI may have accounted for as much as half of the inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product during the first six months of this year. 

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, says: “It’s certainly plausible that the economy would already be in a recession” without the AI boom.

Without AI-related spending, the economic outlook is less robust. According to Deutsche Bank, private business investment, excluding AI, has shown little to no growth since 2019.

Commercial construction outside of data centres is also in decline, while job creation has moderated and unemployment is slowly rising. Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America, notes of AI: “it’s the only source of investment right now”.

Tech giants lead an AI spending increase

Four major technology companies are shouldering the bulk of this investment. Bank of America estimates that Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are projected to make US$344bn in capital expenditures this year.

This figure, a substantial increase from US$228bn last year, represents 1.1% of US GDP and has a considerable impact on economic growth.

According to analysis from Barclays, investment in software, equipment and data centres contributes approximately one percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of 2025.

Even when accounting for imported components like Nvidia chips, AI spending still increases output by 0.8% in the first half of the year. Given that total GDP grows by 1.6%, AI is responsible for half of all growth.

Looking ahead, Bank of America expects the four largest tech companies to invest another US$404bn next year, although the growth rate of this spending is expected to slow.

Construction and supply chain pressures

This investment increase is being felt directly within the construction sector. Data centres now represent around 35% of Turner Construction’s backlog in the US, a considerable rise from approximately 13% five years ago.

Ben Kaplan of Turner Construction explains that building one of these facilities requires anywhere from 100 to 5,000 people, an increase in demand that is placing a strain on supply chains.

Lead times for essential equipment such as electrical generators and switchgear have also been extended by months. “Every element of the supply chain is being stressed right now,” says Ben.

Stock valuations and recession vulnerabilities

The high concentration of growth in AI investment introduces specific economic vulnerabilities. With stock price-to-earnings ratios near record highs, share prices could fall if profit forecasts are not met.

A key factor is the ‘wealth effect’. JPMorgan Chase calculates that rising prices of AI stocks alone have boosted consumer spending by US$180bn over the past year. A sharp drop in stock values could cause a corresponding fall in consumption.

Jonathan Millar, Senior US Economist at Barclays, estimates that a 20% to 30% decline in the stock market could reduce GDP growth by one to 1.5 percentage points over a year. If AI investment merely ceased to grow, it could remove another 0.5 points from growth.

This risk is compounded by the scale of AI-related corporate borrowing. Firms like Oracle have taken on massive debt to finance expansion. If the anticipated revenues required to service this debt do not materialise, the impact could ripple through credit markets.

Peter warns that this combination of factors could push an already weakening economy into a contraction, stating: “If you take a fragile labour market and you kick it with a capex bust, you’re probably going to get a recession out of it”.