Understanding the Economic Shock of the Covid-19 Crisis

Predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, but we can speculate about the size and scale of the economic shock. 

Economic contagion is now spreading as fast as Covid-19 itself. Social distancing, intended to physically disrupt the spread, has severed the flow of goods and people, stalled economies, and is in the process of delivering a global recession. Predicting the path ahead has become nearly impossible, as multiple dimensions of the crisis are unprecedented and unknowable. Pressing questions include the path of the shock and recovery, whether economies will be able to return to their pre-shock output levels and growth rates, and whether there will be any structural legacy from the coronavirus crisis. This Explainer explores several scenarios to model the size and scale of the economic shock and the path ahead.

Based on the HBR article by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Martin Reeves and Paul Swartz