BCG Predicts Payments Revenue to Hit US$2.4tn by 2029

Boston Consulting Group predicts global payments revenue will reach US$2.4tn by 2029, but warns growth rates will decelerate sharply as interest rate tailwinds fade.

The consultancy's 23rd annual Global Payments Report forecasts annual growth will slow to 4.0% through 2029, down from the 8.8% compound annual growth rate achieved since 2019. Revenue reached US$1.93tn in 2024.

Transaction-related revenues will drive most expansion, propelled by rising card usage and instant payment adoption. 

Latin America will lead with double-digit annual transaction-related revenue growth, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 9%. 

Eastern Europe will grow by roughly 13%, outpacing Western Europe's 4.3% and North America's 5.6%.

Non-transaction revenues, which surged during the high-rate era, face sharp deceleration. 

Growth in Europe is expected to slow to just 1.6% through 2029, compared with an average of 14% annually over the past five years.

The payments fintech sector has attracted US$135bn in equity funding over the past 25 years, representing nearly a quarter of all global fintech investment. 

These businesses generated US$176bn in revenue in 2024 and continue to expand at a 23% compound annual growth rate.

Software-as-a-service integrated payments companies have generated average annual total shareholder returns of 37% over the past three years. Issuers posted 32% annual returns, supported by robust consumer spending and a more favourable regulatory environment. 

Networks maintained 18% annual returns, whilst acquirers and processors struggled with just 2% annual returns as SaaS models encroach on their territory.

Stablecoins find mainstream use cases

BCG has found stablecoins reached a market capitalisation of around US$210bn in 2024, up 57% year-on-year, and generated more than US$26tn in transaction volume. 

By August 2025, market capitalisation had grown another 30% to nearly US$270bn.

Real-world payments account for only 1% of total stablecoin transaction volume, with most activity tied to crypto trading. 

The Global South is driving adoption, with Turkey seeing stablecoin volume reach US$38bn in the 12 months through March 2024, representing 4.3% of GDP.

In Nigeria, USDC transaction volume jumped 412% year-on-year in 2025 and now exceeds US$3bn per month. 

Stablecoin-based business-to-business payments have seen a 30-fold increase in just two years, growing from less than US$100m in early 2023 to more than US$3bn by 2025.

Major corporations are beginning to integrate stablecoins into their operations. 

SpaceX utilises Stripe's Bridge platform for intracompany transfers, while JPMorgan's Kinexys platform has processed more than US$1.5tn  in corporate transactions, with a daily volume of around US$2bn.

Agentic AI reshapes shopping behaviour

A July 2025 survey found that 81% of US consumers expect to shop using agentic AI, with uptake highest among households with children at 93%. 

The technology could drive more than US$1tn in spending, accounting for about 50% of online commerce.

Agentic AI is moving beyond simple product discovery to autonomous purchasing. The technology can now perform end-to-end purchasing journeys with minimal human input and intelligently optimise payment methods to maximise rewards.

Networks stand to benefit most from the agentic commerce trend. 

As new players enter a network, it can define roles, set standards, and shape economics, unlocking monetisation opportunities. Transaction autonomy will also drive tokenisation adoption.

Software platforms disrupt traditional acquiring

Software platforms are reshaping merchant services, with 60% of small US businesses already using vertical, industry-specific SaaS platforms, according to Stripe data. 

These providers embed financial services directly into merchant workflows, giving them control over customer relationships beyond transactions.

Between 2019 and 2023, value-added services' share of US acquiring revenue rose from 5-10% to 25-30%. 

Embedded financial services grew from 5-10% to 7-15%. Projections suggest value-added services could reach 30-35% of revenue by 2027, with embedded finance reaching 10-20%.

Software platforms increased total revenue by roughly 40% annually from 2020 to 2024, twice the pace of digital acquirers and nearly triple that of incumbents. 

Shopify, Lightspeed, and Toast now generate revenues from embedded financial services, with some products achieving double-digit penetration of their merchant base.

“Cost transformation is a major growth lever, not just an efficiency play,” says Inderpreet Batra, Managing Director and Senior Partner at Boston Consulting Group.

Real-time payments accelerate globally

Real-time account-to-account payments grew by around 40% year-on-year in 2024 and now represent around 25% of global retail digital payments. In India and Brazil, such payments already exceed 50% of all transactions.

India's UPI handles more than 19 billion transactions per month as of July 2025, while Brazil's Pix serves over 160 million users. 

In Poland, Blik accounts for more than 60% of e-commerce transactions, and Spain's Bizum has reached 29 million users.

Cross-border instant payments present opportunities to capture up to 30% of transaction-related revenue pools in high-priority remittance and trade corridors. 

UPI International is live in Singapore, Sri Lanka, UAE, France and several other countries, with expansion to more than 10 other countries planned.

Risk and compliance functions face mounting pressure from geopolitical volatility and shifting trade alignments. 

Companies must navigate complex sanctions regimes, real-time screening obligations, and export controls that extend beyond traditional name matching.

The EU's Digital Operational Resilience Act is now fully in force, whilst the US Incident Notification Rule requires banks to alert regulators of material cybersecurity incidents within 36 hours.

Commenting on the report’s findings, Kunal Jhanji, MD and Partner at BCG and the report’s co-author, concludes with a UK focus: “With interest rates easing and deposit margins under pressure, the UK payments market is resilient but stagnating at sub-2% annual growth. 

“To unlock the next wave, providers must leverage the country’s strength in its advanced cards ecosystem, accelerate the infrastructure investment and upgrades to enable adoption of other payment methods, and invest in new services beyond payments. 

“At the same time, preparing for agentic AI and digital currencies such as stablecoins and tokenised deposits will be critical to securing long-term competitiveness.”