Crypto in 2025: What is its Ceiling?
Trading volume in Bitcoin reached US$19tn in 2024, double the previous year's US$8.7tn, according to data from Digital Desk.
The cryptocurrency market's expansion coincides with Donald Trump's presidential election victory in November 2024 and subsequent policy proposals affecting digital assets.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024 has created new pathways for institutional capital to enter cryptocurrency markets, including retirement funds.
“Even a small allocation of the US$40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” says Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, which forecasts Bitcoin reaching US$200,000 by end-2025.
Corporate investment in Bitcoin continues to grow, with Bernstein analysis projecting holdings to exceed US$50bn in 2025, up from US$24bn in 2024.
Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency-focused asset manager, expects US spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management to surpass US$250bn.
Trump World Liberty Financial Launch Shifts Markets
Trump's campaign included pledges to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve using funds from criminal seizures.
The president-elect's plans include replacing Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, whose tenure featured enforcement actions against cryptocurrency firms.
The Trump organisation launched World Liberty Financial in September 2024, introducing a proprietary cryptocurrency through a decentralised finance platform developed with his sons.
While the venture faced regulatory scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest during the presidential campaign, it marked a shift in cryptocurrency engagement at senior political levels.
James Butterfill, Head of Research at digital asset investment firm CoinShares, tells CNBC that while regulatory changes could drive prices to US$150,000, “disappointment surrounding Trump's proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction”.
“Even a small allocation of the US$40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices"
Bernstein Projects Cross-Border Payment Growth
US brokerage firm Bernstein forecasts stablecoin market capitalisation to expand 2.5 times through 2025, driven by business-to-business payments and cross-border transactions.
The firm anticipates clearer definition of cryptocurrency securities classification, enabling platforms to tokenise traditional stock market assets.
Mining companies Core Scientific and TeraWulf demonstrated stronger performance in 2024 by diversifying into artificial intelligence sectors, according to Bernstein's analysis.
Bitcoin's computing power, known as hashrate, reached 1,000 exahashes per second in early 2025, while US-based mining pools Foundry USA and MARA Pool processed 38.5% of Bitcoin blocks in 2024.
Sid Powell, Co-founder of centralised finance platform Maple Finance, draws comparisons with traditional market development. “If you look historically when we saw gold ETFs come in, the inflows in the first year increased dramatically in subsequent years — and I think we can expect to see that with the bitcoin ETFs,” Powell tells CNBC's Squawk Box Europe.
Previous cryptocurrency market cycles demonstrated significant volatility, including Bitcoin's decline from US$70,000 to below US$17,000 in 2022 amid company bankruptcies.
However, predictions point to a rapid rise for 2025, with Youwei Yang, Chief Economist at cryptocurrency mining firm Bit Mining, projecting 2025 trading ranges between US$180,000 and US$190,000. He does, however, note risks from US-China tensions and Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
University of Sussex finance professor Carol Alexander is slightly more cautious, telling CNBC that summer prices could reach “around US$150,000 plus or minus US$50,000”.
This forecast aligns with Bernstein's outlook for increased institutional participation through regulated channels and anticipated growth in Ethereum adoption through real-world asset tokenisation.
What’s more, Bernstein expects traditional investors to engage with Ethereum's technical applications in staking, smart contracts, and cross-chain operations.
This development accompanies the firm's projection for artificial intelligence integration within cryptocurrency systems, furthering the appeal of cryptocurrencies to investors.
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